Atlanta Falcons - Fantasy News

Falcons at Rams Start 'Em / Sit 'Em

by Aaron Bowers

1/3/18

NFL

Atlanta Falcons

Devonta Freeman

On Saturday night the No. 6 seed Atlanta Falcons will travel to Los Angeles to play the No. 3 seed Rams in the first playoff game in LA since 1985.

Atlanta started the season with a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, stumbling through a 4-4 start. But it turned things around, finishing the season on a 6-2 run with the team’s only losses coming against the Vikings and Saints. The historically great offense of last season isn’t walking through that door, but the Falcons have played well enough recently to win games in the postseason.

The Rams, meanwhile, surprised the sport’s observers by fielding the best scoring offense in football after scoring fewer points than any team in the league last season. By more than doubling the number of points from 2016 and maintaining good defense and special teams, the Rams increased their win total from four to 11 and won the NFC West.

Atlanta Falcons Wild Card Round Projected Fantasy Points
Matt Ryan: 15.5 PFP
Julio Jones: 13.5 PFP
Devonta Freeman: 13.0 PFP
Mohamed Sanu: 9.5 PFP
Tevin Coleman: 9.0 PFP
Matt Bryant: 9.0 PFP
Austin Hooper: 6.0 PFP

Los Angeles Rams Wild Card Round Projected Fantasy Points
Todd Gurley: 22.5 PFP
Jared Goff: 18.0 PFP
Robert Woods: 11.5 PFP
Cooper Kupp: 10.0 PFP
Sammy Watkins: 8.5 PFP
Sam Ficken: 7.0 PFP

Start 'Em: Matt Ryan (15.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 14.51

In a down year, it is easy to forget how good Ryan was just 12 months ago. The Boston College product blitzed through the NFC playoffs last January, scoring 39.98 DFP against Green Bay and 25.22 DFP against Seattle on the road to the Super Bowl. Ryan hasn’t lost all his talent in one year, and the team around him is as good or better than in 2016. The Rams defense is weakest on the back end, and Atlanta may be playing from behind as a six-point road underdog. This sets up to be a potentially big game for the former MVP.

Sit 'Em: Devonta Freeman (13.0 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 13.16

Though Freeman has come on of late, fantasy players would do well to remember the stretch from Week 6 to Week 16 when he scored fewer than 13.0 DFP in seven of nine games. In fact, if not for a Week 14 injury to Tevin Coleman, Freeman’s cold streak likely would have continued through the end of the season. Led by Aaron Donald up front, the Rams have an imposing front seven that has bottled up opposing ground games over the latter part of the season. If the Falcons fall behind, we could see a similar game script which saw Freeman get just 13 touches for 56 yards against the Saints in Week 16.

Start 'Em: Todd Gurley (22.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 23.89

The 22.5 projection in a playoff game is a tough ask, but is there any player right now more likely to hit that total than Gurley? Over his last three games, he shredded the Eagles, Seahawks and Titans for 591 yards and eight touchdowns. If there is one thing we know about Atlanta, it’s that it has a difficult time defending running backs out of the backfield. On the season, the Falcons gave up 107 receptions to backs, eight more than any other team in the league. And who can forget the Super Bowl when James White caught 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown? On the year, Gurley has six games with five or more receptions. We expect him to do damage in all facets of this game and get over his PFP as a home favorite.

Sit 'Em: Jared Goff (18.0 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 17.35

For how great Goff has been this season, this isn’t a good spot for the second-year passer. The Falcons possess a playoff-tested defense that has given up 18.0 DFP just six times this season. The list of quarterbacks to reach that total against Atlanta includes Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. Say what you will about Sean McVay, but he hasn’t turned Goff into one of those guys. The Cal product eclipsed 18.0 DFP just once in the last four games and will be playing in his first career playoff contest. We recommend fading him on Dober Play Cards until we know how he will respond to playoff adversity and a good defense.