Atlanta Falcons - Fantasy News

Falcons at Buccaneers Start 'Em / Sit 'Em

by Aaron Bowers

12/11/17

NFL

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones

Week 15 of the NFL season will wrap up on Monday Night Football with an NFC South matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Bouncing back from a loss to the Vikings, the Falcons beat the Saints at home in Week 14 to get to 8-5. Atlanta has won five of its last seven games and controls its own destiny in the NFC playoff race. With key injuries to other NFC contenders, the Falcons look like a team that could find themselves back in the Super Bowl come February.

After an offseason of uncontrollable hype, the Bucs have been an absolute disaster. They started 2-1 but have dropped eight of their last ten games. What makes that even worse is the fact that the two games they won during that stretch were started by Ryan Fitzpatrick. At 4-9 this is a team in complete disarray with a potentially lame-duck coach and a turnover-prone quarterback.

Atlanta Falcons Week 15 Projected Fantasy Points
Matt Ryan: 17.5 PFP
Julio Jones: 14.5 PFP
Devonta Freeman: 13.0 PFP
Mohamed Sanu: 10.5 PFP
Tevin Coleman: 9.5 PFP
Matt Bryant: 9.0 PFP
Austin Hooper: 7.5 PFP
Taylor Gabriel: 5.0 PFP

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 15 Projected Fantasy Points
Jameis Winston: 14.5 PFP
Mike Evans: 11.5 PFP
DeSean Jackson: 9.0 PFP
Doug Martin: 8.0 PFP
Cameron Brate: 7.5 PFP
O.J. Howard: 6.5 PFP
Patrick Murray: 6.5 PFP
Peyton Barber: 5.5 PFP
Adam Humphries: 5.0 PFP

Start 'Em: Julio Jones (14.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 13.55

A disappointing season by his lofty standards, Julio Jones has another opportunity to get right against the burnable Buccaneer secondary. When he faced Tampa Bay at home four weeks ago, Jones caught 12 passes for 253 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Bucs seemed to be content matching up Jones one-on-one while trying their best to contain the other Atlanta weapons.

They probably won’t make that mistake again.

Still, Tampa Bay has allowed more Dober Fantasy Points per game to wide receivers than any team in the league, putting Jones in line for another monster game in primetime.

Sit 'Em: Tevin Coleman (9.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 10.48

Last week in this spot, we recommended fading Tevin Coleman, citing the fact that he isn’t a major part of the Falcons’ plan on offense. After a nine-carry, 32-yard effort against New Orleans, we’re going back to the well and fading Coleman again.

While Coleman was struggled to get to 3.20 Dober Fantasy Points against the Saints, teammate Devonta Freeman carried the ball 23 times for 91 yards and a touchdown.

Last season, Coleman derived a lot of fantasy value from catching the ball out of the backfield or split out wide, and to start this season, he had 13 receptions in four games. Since then, he has maxed out at one catch in eight of his last nine games. Without the added receiving value, Coleman just isn’t getting enough work to justify a Projected Fantasy Points total of 9.5.

Start 'Em: Peyton Barber (5.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 3.85

With Doug Martin out with a concussion in Week 13, Peyton Barber racked up 27 touches for 143 yards. Martin returned to the lineup in Week 14, receiving 12 touches for 50 yards and a score before fumbling with three minutes left in the second quarter. He didn’t touch the ball again while Barber picked up 13 touches for 61 yards.

The Bucs have absolutely nothing to play for at this point, and Martin is a free agent after the season. We expect the Tampa Bay coaching staff to turn the job over to Barber and see what they have in the third-year back out of Auburn.

Against a soft Atlanta run defense, Barber should easily eclipse 5.5 Dober Fantasy Points.

Sit 'Em: Mike Evans (11.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 10.63

The No. 3 receiver in Dober Fantasy Points per game in 2016, Mike Evans has been a huge disappointment for fantasy players this season. He’s on pace to finish with fewer receptions and receiving yards than in any season of his career, and he’s scored just four times compared to 12 last season.

Against Atlanta in Week 12, Evans caught six passes for 78 yards, good for 10.8 DFP. Jameis Winston is playing some of the worst football of his career. He’s throwing inaccurate passes, making terrible decisions, taking sacks at inopportune times and turning the ball over at an astounding rate. Evans certainly has the talent to blow his Projected Fantasy Points total out of the water, but he’s only scored 11.5 DFP once since Week 7. We recommend fading him on Dober Play Cards until this pass offense is fixed.