Pittsburgh Steelers - Fantasy News

Should I Start JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 12?

by Derek Norton

11/24/17

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers

JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu Smith-Schuster wasn’t supposed to make much of an impact in 2017. He was 20 years old when the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted him earlier this year, and he was behind Martavis Bryant and Eli Rogers on the depth chart.

But through a confluence of events that most notably included Bryant complaining his way out of a job, Smith-Schuster is Pittsburgh’s new No. 2 receiver. He’ll face the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football after 10 days of rest.

Why Should I Start JuJu Smith-Schuster?

Smith-Schuster has been one of the most productive receivers on Dober since Week 7. He has the eighth-most Dober points over that stretch and has exceeded his projection in six of his last eight contests. He also surpassed his Week 12 projection (11) in two of his last three games. It would have been three out of four if he had gotten an additional tenth of a Dober point against the Bengals in Week 7.

Per 4for4.com’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed metric, the Packers are an amazing matchup. They rank 29^th in standard leagues and 30^th in PPR leagues, meaning they’re certainly one of the most exploitable defenses in half-PPR leagues as well. They have the 16^th-best pass defense, but they’ve played four of their games against three of the bottom-four pass offenses in the league (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago twice).

The Packers haven’t had much success against No. 2 receivers in particular. Per Football Outsiders, they are 23^rd in DVOA against their opponents’ second receivers. Smith-Schuster holds that mantle, as he has out-snapped Bryant in every game since Week 3. The USC product should have a bit more success than usual.

Why Should I Bench JuJu Smith-Schuster?

The biggest red flag is his hamstring injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, which puts his Sunday availability in jeopardy. Even if he is active, the injury could limit him more than usual. Worst of all, hamstring problems tend to result in the injured player limping off the field early on and never returning. Using Smith-Schuster will be playing with fire, even if he does suit up.

Despite his production, Smith-Schuster has not been frequently targeted. Since taking over for Bryant in Week 3, he is 38^th among receivers in targets with 47. Even after he really started getting involved in Week 7, he’s tied for 28^th in the league with 28.

He has also been touchdown-dependent thus far. He has under 50 receiving yards in seven of 10 games and has largely needed to get into the end zone to be effective. The closest he has ever come to surpassing 11 Dober points without a score was Week 6 against Jacksonville when he scored 7.8. Touchdowns tend to be fluky, so don’t count on him finding the end zone this week.

Should I Make JuJu Smith-Schuster a Week 12 Fantasy Starter?

No, in large part due to his injury. Hamstring problems are among the riskiest to try and play through. The chances of Smith-Schuster not seeing many snaps or being little more than a decoy are a bit too high this week. Steer clear of him until he’s definitely healthy.

Week 12 Fantasy Prediction: JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 11 DFPs