Philadelphia Eagles - Fantasy News

Super Bowl LII DFS Picks: Zach Ertz

by Derek Norton

1/31/18

NFL

Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz earned his first trip to the Pro Bowl in 2017 after setting new career highs in touchdowns (eight) and yards per game (58.9). Of course, Ertz couldn’t take the NFL up on its invitation after Philadelphia advanced to the Super Bowl.

Though he hasn’t performed quite as well in the postseason as he did in the regular season, Ertz is still one of Philadelphia’s best receivers. The bad news is he’s facing a New England Patriots team that hasn’t seen many tight ends do well against them.

Why Should I Start Zach Ertz?

Ertz hasn’t seen a tremendous drop-off in production since Nick Foles took over for the injured Carson Wentz. He exceeded his Super Bowl projection (11.5 Dober points) in three of the four games he played with Foles from start to finish. That includes the NFC Championship, where he led the Eagles in both receptions (eight) and yards (93). He is also Philadelphia’s postseason leader in targets with 13.

His invitation to the Pro Bowl came thanks in large part to his ability to score in the red zone. All eight of his touchdowns came from inside the 20, putting him third in the league in red zone scores behind Jimmy Graham and Jarvis Landry. The numbers are even more impressive considering he missed two games and finished the season without his starting quarterback.

New England hadn’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 6, but that streak was snapped in the AFC Championship by Marcedes Lewis. The Eagles could be more inclined to look Ertz’s way now that they’ve seen another team succeed. Ertz also scored a touchdown in his lone matchup with New England in 2015, and the Pats allowed another tight end—Austin Hooper—to score in last year’s Super Bowl.

Despite the trends, tight ends can beat the Patriots. Considering Ertz caught 78.3 percent of his red zone targets this year, the Eagles would be foolish if they didn’t at least try to get him the ball inside the 20.

Why Should I Bench Zach Ertz?

Though Ertz’s targets, receptions and yards have remained stable with Foles, his touchdowns have fallen off. He has just one score since Wentz went down. The Patriots are not an ideal matchup for him to get back on track.

Specifically, a tight end hasn’t exceeded 11.5 Dober points against New England since Austin Seferian-Jenkins did it in Week 6. He caught the sixth and final touchdown the Patriots would allow to a tight end in the regular season. Though Lewis broke the streak last week, it was his only catch. Further, the Pats held Pro Bowler Delanie Walker to 7.9 Dober points in the Divisional round.

In fact, no tight end has even come close to scoring 11.5 Dober points since Seferian-Jenkins did it. The Patriots held opposing tight ends to 45 yards per game, which ranked 10^th in the league. Care to guess which tight end picked up the most yards against New England? That would be Neal Sterling, who recorded 74 yards for the New York Jets in Week 17. Seeing as he entered the game with one catch for eight yards on the season, it’s fair to say that was a fluke. The Patriots will be ready for Ertz.

Should I Make Zach Ertz a Super Bowl Fantasy Starter?

No. Or at least you shouldn’t expect him to meet his projection. It’s a little high considering the challenges he’s going to face. That said, the Dober homepage features a matchup of Rob Gronkowski (-1) vs. Ertz. Considering Gronk’s recent concussion and other injury problems, taking Ertz with a point is a defensible move.

Ertz should get plenty of targets while Gronk’s status is uncertain, so that could easily go in your favor. Just don’t count on Ertz having a monster game since he’s catching passes from Foles against a team that routinely shuts tight ends down.

Super Bowl Fantasy Prediction: Zach Ertz Under 11.5 DFPs