Philadelphia Eagles - Fantasy News

Super Bowl LII DFS Picks: Torrey Smith

by Derek Norton

1/31/18

NFL

Philadelphia Eagles

Torrey Smith

It took two free-agent contracts and two lost seasons in San Francisco, but Torrey Smith is back in the Super Bowl after a five-year hiatus.

Though Smith’s first season in Philadelphia wasn’t markedly better than his San Francisco years, he still has a skill set that makes him an intriguing option week to week.

That same skill set has given the New England Patriots problems this year.

Why Should I Start Torrey Smith?

Smith has always been a deep threat, but he hasn’t had much success in that area with the Eagles. He had only three catches and one touchdown that went 30 yards or more this season. The good news is he showed that he is at least still capable of long touchdowns in the NFC Championship when he scored from 41 yards out in the third quarter.

As a deep threat, he could have plenty of success against New England. Similar deep threats, such as Tyreek Hill (24.3), DeSean Jackson (14.1), Travis Benjamin (16.3) and Martavis Bryant (13.9), shattered Smith’s Super Bowl projection of 5.5 Dober points. Each had 100 yards and/or a touchdown against New England.

Smith has a history of success in the postseason. In 10 career playoff games, he is averaging 2.8 receptions for 52.2 yards with five total touchdowns. He has exceeded 5.5 Dober points 60 percent of the time in the playoffs. Three of those six games were against the Patriots. He has never failed to exceed 5.5 Dober points in five career meetings against them.  

And deep threats aren’t the only ones that have had success against New England. The Pats allowed the third-most yards to wide receivers during the regular season. Smith may only need one play, but he could get more than that considering the matchup.

Why Should I Bench Torrey Smith?

Smith’s reputation as a boom-bust player comes with plenty of poor stat lines. He has had more of those than usual this year. He has scored more than 5.5 Dober points four times since the beginning of October. Last week was the first time he had done so with Nick Foles at quarterback. He had 13 regular season games with fewer than 30 receiving yards.

He is also the fourth option in Philadelphia’s passing game. Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor all get more targets than Smith. His five red zone targets are fifth on the team, with those three plus Trey Burton ahead of him.

Smith is unlikely to benefit from Dober’s half-PPR scoring. He had three receptions or fewer in 11 regular season games, including each one after Carson Wentz’s injury. The five receptions he caught in the NFC Championship were one short of a season high. There could be some recency bias, as the last time we saw him was one of his best games as an Eagle. The whole body of work is less impressive, though. 

Should I Make Torrey Smith a Super Bowl Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Smith’s projection is low and he will not be one of the New England defense’s priorities since it will have to worry about Jeffery, Ertz and Jay Ajayi. His history against the Patriots is also very difficult to ignore. Considering he only needs about 40 yards and is capable of getting that in one play, he’s worth using this week.

Super Bowl Fantasy Prediction: Torrey Smith Over 5.5 DFPs