Philadelphia Eagles - Fantasy News

Super Bowl LII DFS Picks: LeGarrette Blount

by Derek Norton

1/30/18

NFL

Philadelphia Eagles

LeGarrette Blount

One prediction NFL pundits actually did nail was the regression of LeGarrette Blount in 2017.

A season after scoring 18 touchdowns with the New England Patriots, Blount’s stint as the closest thing Philadelphia had to a lead back lasted about half a season.

Jay Ajayi has gotten more and more of Blount’s touches as the season has gone on, and that’s unlikely to change in the Super Bowl. Luckily, he does have one statistical trend in his favor.

Why Should I Start LeGarrette Blount?

As you might have guessed, that statistical trend is touchdowns. Blount is the active leader in career postseason rushing touchdowns. He’s also seventh all time. The top 15 on that list includes eleven Hall of Famers, Marshawn Lynch, Shaun Alexander, Ricky Watters and Blount. So it’s fair to say he has been fairly successful at getting over the goal line.

That trend has continued this season. Blount has a touchdown in each of Philadelphia’s playoff games and went over his Super Bowl projection (7.5) both times. It wouldn’t take much more than a single score to put him over.

He should be first in line for opportunities as well. Blount finished the season 12^th in the league in red zone carries (33) and ninth in carries inside the five-yard line (10). Short touchdowns are pretty much his only reason for being on the team, so it stands to reason he’ll get the ball if the Eagles are close to the end zone.

Why Should I Bench LeGarrette Blount?

Since Ajayi debuted with the Eagles in Week 9, Blount has rarely been worth using. He eclipsed his Super Bowl projection three times in the 10 games since. Two of them (the playoff games) required a touchdown. Those were his only two scores since Ajayi joined the team. The other was a 31-3 blowout against Chicago when Blount took on the “run out the clock” role he had so often in New England. It’s unlikely the Eagles will be up huge and running out the clock and, even if they are, Ajayi could still shoulder the load. Despite the Eagles blowing out the Vikings, Ajayi still out-touched Blount 21 to 6.

Blount got plenty of red zone touches this season, but he was very inefficient. His 10 carries inside the five-yard line ended with minus-seven yards and one touchdown. He is one of only two players (Thomas Rawls) to have negative yardage with five or more such carries. He has 15 carries inside the 10, and of the 17 running backs that had as many rushes in that area, he has the fewest yards by far (four). One typically doesn’t think “red zone weapon” when the running back in question is averaging 0.27 yards per carry inside the 10-yard line.

The Patriots are not a good team to face if you’re a running back whose value is in scoring touchdowns. They allowed just five scores to running backs during the regular season, which were fewer than every team other than Tennessee. They allowed one in the playoffs, but that was to a far superior player in Leonard Fournette.

Should I Make LeGarrette Blount a Super Bowl Fantasy Starter?

No. A bet on Blount is a bet on him scoring a touchdown, and this is just about the worst matchup for him. The Patriots were perfectly fine with letting him walk in free agency twice, meaning they ought to know his weaknesses better than anyone. He doesn’t have much going for him and is safe to avoid.

Super Bowl Fantasy Prediction: LeGarrette Blount Under 7.5 DFPs