Philadelphia Eagles - Fantasy News

Super Bowl LII DFS Picks: Jay Ajayi

by Derek Norton

1/25/18

NFL

Philadelphia Eagles

Jay Ajayi

The Philadelphia Eagles rested Jay Ajayi in Week 17 ostensibly so they could keep the ball in his hands (and out of Nick Foles’) as often as possible in the playoffs.

While Ajayi hasn’t been dominant, he has given the Eagles steady production. Foles having arguably the game of his life in the NFC Championship helped as well.

But Ajayi is one of Philadelphia’s most dynamic weapons on offense and the Eagles will surely try to get him involved early and often in the biggest game of the season. The problem is he’s facing a New England team that knows a thing or two about winning Super Bowls.

Why Should I Start Jay Ajayi?

The 21 touches Ajayi received against Minnesota were the most he has gotten as an Eagle. His previous high came the week before when the touched the ball 18 times against Atlanta. Though the Eagles were slow to get Ajayi involved after the trade with Miami, they look to be content giving him the ball more and more.

Ajayi hasn’t had any of the big games in Philadelphia that were his calling card in Miami, but he has found a level of consistency. In his last four contests, he’s scored between 9.3 and 12.3 Dober points and eclipsed his Super Bowl projection (11 Dober points) twice. Odds are he’ll be in that area again, making him a good bet against a more volatile player you think will bust.

While the Patriots drastically improved their run defense as the season went along, they weren’t invincible. They gave up big games to Kenyan Drake, Le’Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy in three of their final four contests of the regular season. Ajayi is definitely capable of putting up similar numbers.

The Patriots allowed the top running backs in each of their last two Super Bowl appearances to easily eclipse Ajayi’s projection. Devonta Freeman scored 19.1 Dober points in Super Bowl LI while Marshawn Lynch scored 19.8 in Super Bowl XLIX. About 60 percent of that kind of production would be enough for Ajayi.

Why Should I Bench Jay Ajayi?

Ajayi tangled with the Patriots a few times as a member of the division rival Dolphins. He didn’t do very well. In three games, he rushed 28 times for 75 yards (2.68 yards per carry). He never surpassed 11 Dober points or scored a touchdown against them. That seems likely to continue since Ajayi still hasn’t punched in a rushing score with the Eagles. His only touchdown came in Week 16 in what was the first receiving score of his career.

Ajayi’s playoff numbers aren’t great either. In three career starts, he’s rushed 49 times for 160 yards for an average of 3.27 yards per carry. He also has scoring problems in the postseason as he has no playoff touchdowns.

New England’s run defense has been solid as a rock in the playoffs. The Pats held Derrick Henry to 28 yards on 12 carries and Leonard Fournette to 76 yards on 24 rushes. Fournette just eclipsed Ajayi’s production due to a touchdown, but Henry didn’t come close. We mentioned earlier that Ajayi is one of Philadelphia’s most dynamic weapons, meaning there’s a good chance the Patriots will dedicate themselves to stopping him.

Should I Make Jay Ajayi a Super Bowl Fantasy Starter?

No. Ajayi would be a good bet if he was getting in the end zone more often, but the lack of scores are glaring—even more so in a playoff game against New England.

He does have some value, though, due to his consistency. If you wanted to start him against a boom-bust player like, say, Brandin Cooks (projected to score 12 Dober points), that would be a solid wager.

But it looks like if he’s going to get to 11 Dober points, it will either be close or will require him to do things he hasn’t done in an Eagles uniform. Take the under.

Super Bowl Fantasy Prediction: Jay Ajayi Under 11 DFPs