Philadelphia Eagles - Fantasy News

NFL Playoff DFS Picks: Jay Ajayi

by Derek Norton

1/10/18

NFL

Philadelphia Eagles

Jay Ajayi

Jay Ajayi’s “punishment” in Miami sent him to the NFC’s top seed. While the Eagles are certainly in a better position than the Dolphins, Philadelphia’s offense is trending downward since the loss of Carson Wentz.

Never was this more evident than the team’s 6-0 loss to the Cowboys in Week 17, when it could only manage 215 total yards. The good news is rookie Nate Sudfeld played most of the game and Ajayi didn’t play at all.

Perhaps things won’t be quite as bad when the Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday.

Why Should I Start Jay Ajayi?

Ajayi faced the Falcons earlier this year as a member of the Dolphins. In what would be his final good game with Miami, he rushed 26 times for 130 yards — both season-highs. His five yards per carry were also the most he averaged in any game in which he ran more than 20 times. It’s safe to say he’s capable of gashing this Atlanta defense.

Since Week 12, Ajayi has seen a steady increase in Dober points each game. That culminated in 12.3 Dober points in Week 16, which was his second-highest score as an Eagle. He got at least 14 touches in each of his final three games, and there could be more on the way. With Nick Foles and LeGarrette Blount playing poorly, it would be reasonable to expect the Eagles to lean on Ajayi. He’s had two weeks off and should be able to shoulder the load.

While Ajayi has gotten better since Week 12, the Falcons have allowed moderate success to running backs over that stretch. In that eight-game period, seven running backs went over Ajayi’s Divisional projection (10 Dober points). That includes Todd Gurley, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry last week. A well-rested Ajayi could wreak havoc on an Atlanta run defense that is essentially coming off two playoff games.

Why Should I Bench Jay Ajayi?

Ajayi had an absurdly high ceiling with the Dolphins, but that hasn’t been the case in Philadelphia. He has no more than 13.7 Dober points and scored under 10 Dober points in four of his seven games. It would make sense for the Eagles to give him a ton of carries, but it’s tough to bank on something we haven’t seen.

He has made one other postseason start and it didn’t go well. Facing the Steelers in the Wild Card round last season, Ajayi managed just 45 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches for a total of six Dober points. That’s not exactly a trend, but Ajayi does have some well-documented issues on the mental side of the game. Otherwise, he’d still be in Miami. The stage and pressure could get to him.

The Falcons are a tough defense for running backs since Atlanta rarely gives up rushing touchdowns. Five backs scored a total of six touchdowns on the unit all season, and it kept the red-hot Gurley out of the end zone as well. The defense also tied for seventh in the league with eight forced fumbles. Ajayi will have his work cut out for him, especially if the Falcons key on him.

Should I Make Jay Ajayi a Divisional Fantasy Starter?

Yes. As bad as Foles has been and as rested as Ajayi is, it seems the Eagles would be almost foolish to not give Ajayi one of the high-volume games he got so frequently in Miami. No more holding back — if they want to win, they need to get the ball in his hands. He is in position to have his best game as an Eagle so far.

Divisional Fantasy Prediction: Jay Ajayi Over 10 DFPs