New York Giants - Fantasy News

Should I Start Eli Manning in Week 12?

by Derek Norton

11/22/17

NFL

New York Giants

Eli Manning

The New York Giants don’t really have anything to play for, but that didn’t stop them from pulling off a 12-9 upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11.

Eli Manning wasn’t a tremendous part of the victory as he didn’t score a touchdown and completed just 54.3 percent of his passes for 205 yards in a game that ended with under two minutes to go in overtime. Still, he’s only thrown one interception in his last four contests and the Giants appear to be going down swinging.

They’ll have a chance to hand the Washington Redskins their third straight loss when they travel to D.C. for the Thanksgiving nightcap.

Why Should I Start Eli Manning?

The Ole Miss product has torched the Redskins lately. He has at least 15 Dober points in five of his last six games against them. That stretch includes four with at least 275 yards, four multi-touchdown efforts and an average of two scores per game. Simply put, Washington has been very good to him since 2014.

Manning has performed better on the road this season. He has a 77.5 quarterback rating at home compared to 95.8 on the road. He has a higher completion percentage (70 percent to 56.7 percent), more yards per attempt (6.71 to 5.75), more yards per game (255 to 204.6) and more touchdowns per contest (1.6 to 1.2). He has surpassed 14 Dober points three times this season, and each occurrence was outside of New York.

The Redskins have the 25^th ranked pass defense and have been particularly generous to quarterbacks since Week 7. They’ve allowed monster games to Carson Wentz (31.02 Dober points), Russell Wilson (23.58), Case Keenum (25.06) and Drew Brees (22.6) over that stretch. It’s fair to say Manning is catching them at the right time.

Why Should I Bench Eli Manning?

Manning has surpassed 14 Dober points just once without Odell Beckham in the lineup, and that was against the 1-9 49ers. In fact, he couldn’t even get into double digits in three games (at Denver, vs. Seattle, vs. Kansas City). The Chiefs have an even worse pass defense than Washington and Manning didn’t even come close to 14 points.

Part of the reason why he struggled against the Chiefs was the absence of de facto top receiver Sterling Shepard, who missed the game with migraines. Those three matchups in which Manning failed to reach double-digit Dober points also just so happened to be the three games Shepard was inactive. Shepard’s status is up in the air, especially considering the Giants are on a short week. His absence would obviously not bode well for Manning.

The New York signal caller has been better on the road, but it should be noted that Beckham played at least 80 percent of the Giants snaps in two games this season, and both of them were on the road. He saw an astounding 28 targets in those two games. Manning’s improved numbers as a visitor are more of a product of having Beckham than being a better player away from the Meadowlands. He also had Beckham in his previous good games against the Redskins.

Should I Make Eli Manning a Week 12 Fantasy Starter?

No, with a downgrade to “absolutely not” if Shepard is inactive. Manning has only surpassed his Dober projection one time since Week 4, yet for some reason he has his highest Dober projection since Week 6. His numbers are bad, his situation is not good and there’s no value in his projection. You don’t want any part of this.

Week 12 Fantasy Prediction: Eli Manning Under 14 DFPs