Minnesota Vikings - Fantasy News

Who to Start: Jerick McKinnon or Jay Ajayi?

by Mike Rose

1/20/18

NFL

Minnesota Vikings

Jerick McKinnon

The top two teams in the NFC will battle on Sunday night with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance. Jerick McKinnon and the Minnesota Vikings will invade Lincoln Financial Field to take on Jay Ajayi and the No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles.

Minnesota arguably shouldn’t even be here after it blew a 17-point lead to New Orleans last week, but a last-second miracle changed its fortunes. Against the Saints, McKinnon recorded a rushing touchdown while Ajayi had 98 all-purpose yards in his team’s victory over defending NFC champion Atlanta.

Both rushers will look to have bigger impacts while hopefully guiding their respective team to Super Bowl LII.  

Fantasy Matchup: Jerick McKinnon (10.5 PFP) vs. Jay Ajayi (9.5 PFP)

It’s been a whirlwind of a season for the Vikings at the running back position. Minnesota added rookie Dalvin Cook in the draft to be the main rusher, but that didn’t pan out after he went down with a torn ACL after less than a month into the season.

McKinnon and Latavius Murray had to step up in Cook’s absence and they were extremely productive doing so. On the season, McKinnon averaged 9.6 Dober Fantasy Points, which is just over a half-point more than Ajayi to date, so he enters this matchup as a one-point favorite.

McKinnon ran for 570 yards and five touchdowns while only fumbling the ball twice during the regular season. He also added 51 receptions for 421 yards and two scores through the air. His only game over 100 yards came via receiving yards.

But in the playoffs, his impact was felt immediately as the lone touchdown he scored was on the Vikings first drive of the game after a quick three-and-out by the Saints last week.

While Murray is the power back of the offense, McKinnon is the speedster and has the ability to get out into the open field. The No. 7 rushing attack of the Vikings averages 122.3 yards on the ground. The strong ground game is part of an offense that ranks No. 11 in total yards (356.9) and No. 10 in points scored (23.9) per game.

While these stats are great, McKinnon has to face a Philly defense that ranks No. 1 in rushing yards allowed (79.2), No. 4 in total yards allowed (306.5) and No. 4 in points allowed (18.4) per game. So hopefully the speedster and his supporting cast studied the tape from Philly’s game against the Falcons. In particular, they should have looked at the Eagles’ two-minute defense that hasn’t allowed a single point all season during that time frame.

Meanwhile, since being traded midseason to the Eagles, Ajayi really hasn’t been the star he’s capable of being. In his time with the Dolphins, he had two games over 100 yards. Since the trade, he reached higher than 90 rushing yards just once. In the Divisional round game against Atlanta, he had 54 yards on the ground. As a member of the No. 3 rushing attack in the league that averages 132.2 yards per game, he hasn’t been wonderful. That trend is going to continue on Sunday as the Vikings rank No. 2 in rushing yards allowed (83.6), No. 1 in total yards (275.9) and No. 1 in points allowed (15.8) per game.

Looking at both defenses as a whole, it’s going to be difficult for either team to get its respective ground games going. This one could be very low-scoring and a snoozer to watch (I’m personally more excited for the AFC game). Either way, it’s football, and this game will decide the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.

If I were to choose who to pick in this Dober fantasy matchup, I’d go with McKinnon. But, again, it’s tough.

NFC Championship Fantasy Matchup: Jerick McKinnon (-1) vs. Jay Ajayi