Minnesota Vikings - Fantasy News

Who to Start: Case Keenum or Nick Foles?

by Mike Rose

1/19/18

NFL

Minnesota Vikings

Case Keenum

The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles certainly both deserve to be in the NFC Championship Game, but the way they both got to this point is incredibly different.

It took a “Minnesota Miracle” from quarterback Case Keenum and wide receiver Stefon Diggs as time expired for the Vikes to stun the New Orleans Saints, while the Eagles used their incredible goal-to-go defense to send the defending champion Atlanta Falcons packing.

With a berth in the Super Bowl on the line, this matchup could come down to whoever has the ball last.

Fantasy Matchup: Case Keenum (17.5 PFP) vs. Nick Foles (9.5 PFP)

Reflecting back to when the Vikings began the season, Keenum wasn’t even the starting quarterback. That job belonged to Sam Bradford. Keenum was actually the third-string quarterback to begin the campaign, so for him to be the starter in the NFC Championship Game is remarkable. Keenum has averaged 17.27 Dober Fantasy Points per game and is an insane eight-point favorite over Nick Foles in this matchup.

The Houston product threw for 3,547 yards with a 22-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 68 percent of his passes during the regular season. He connected on 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the Divisional round of the playoffs last week. A whopping 172 of those yards and the score came in the fourth quarter alone!

While he faced a Saints defense that ranked No. 15 in passing yards allowed (224.8) and No. 10 in points allowed (20.4) per game, the Philly defense is a different story. The Eagles ‘D’ ranks No. 4 in total yards (306.5), No. 17 in passing yards (227.3) and No. 4 in points allowed (18.4) per contest. Keenum is going to need to throw the ball a lot because the Eagles are the No. 1 ranked rushing defense, allowing an average of only 79.2 rushing yards per game.

Since replacing Carson Wentz, Foles has done a respectable job including last week in the Divisional round against Atlanta. He completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 246 yards against the Falcons. However, he didn’t record a touchdown, but he also wasn’t picked off. So that’s a plus.

Foles now has to face a Minnesota defense that dominated Drew Brees and the Saints for the first 30 minutes last week. In order to get his team to the Super Bowl, he needs to watch the tape of the second half and study the adjustments New Orleans made from the first half.

The Vikings defense doesn’t really have any holes from front to back as it ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (275.9), No. 2 against the pass (192.4), No. 2 versus the run (83.6) and No. 1 in points allowed (15.8) per game. This is going to be an extremely tall task for Foles and company. Look for them to try to run the ball with their No. 3 rushing attack that averages 132.3 yards per contest.

Overall, I like Keenum to keep the Vikes on their run and be the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium three weeks from now.

NFC Championship Fantasy Matchup: Case Keenum (-8.0) vs. Nick Foles