Minnesota Vikings - Fantasy News

NFL Playoffs DFS Picks: Stefon Diggs

by Derek Norton

1/12/18

NFL

Minnesota Vikings

Stefon Diggs

The Minnesota Vikings were left for dead by more than a few pundits once Case Keenum became the starter at quarterback. The sentiment was understandable seeing as Keenum entered the season having never thrown double-digit touchdowns along with a career QBR of 41.1.

But the Houston product had the best season of his career by far, leading to a career-high eight touchdowns for Stefon Diggs. Though Diggs has been a scoring machine of late, he’ll be difficult to trust in a home matchup with the Saints.

Why Should I Start Stefon Diggs?

Diggs surpassed his Divisional projection (12 Dober points) in each of his final three games thanks to finding the end zone once per contest. He caught 16 of 20 targets and led the team in receptions twice. Keenum will definitely be looking his way.  

The Maryland product has played the Saints once in his career, back in Week 1 of this season. In what would be his second-best Dober game of the year, he scored 24.2 Dober points after catching seven passes for 93 yards and two touchdowns. Diggs has a reputation for big games and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have another one here.

Most of his value comes from touchdowns and he does most of his scoring in Minnesota. Though he played six home games and eight road contests, he scored six of his eight touchdowns in Minnesota. He also averaged 5.8 receptions and 81.8 yards in home games compared to 3.6 receptions for 44.8 yards on the road. He’ll have an advantage in U.S. Bank Stadium.

From Week 11 to Week 17, the Saints allowed at least one receiver to exceed 12 Dober points in six of seven games. The lone time they shut down opposing receivers came in a home game against Bryce Petty’s Jets. Diggs doesn’t have a very high bar to clear.

Why Should I Bench Stefon Diggs?

Though Diggs ended the year on a scoring spree, he didn’t pick up many yards. He averaged 50.2 yards per game in December and, if not for touchdowns, he would have exceeded his projection only three times this year. He hasn’t surpassed 12 Dober points on receptions and yards alone since Week 4. Touchdown-dependent players tend to be fluky, and Diggs has a higher chance of that considering his history.

Specifically, he has only exceeded 80 receiving yards twice in his career in games after October. That includes his one career playoff effort when he caught four passes for 26 yards against Seattle two years ago. That’s further evidence that he almost has to score to be worth using this week.

When Diggs went off on the Saints, they had the worst defense in the league. That’s not the case anymore. They’re fifth in opponent completion percentage (59.4), third in interceptions (20) and seventh in opponent quarterback rating (79). Last week, Carolina’s receivers combined for 18.3 Dober points against them. Only Devin Funchess (9.9) came remotely close to reaching Diggs’ projection.

Should I Make Stefon Diggs a Divisional Fantasy Starter?

No. Diggs’ three seasons have all gone pretty much the same way: fast start, slow finish. He hasn’t been a reliable option after October and has the profile of a mid-to-low tier tight end in that he’s been a “touchdown or bust” kind of player. The Saints have allowed one receiving touchdown to receivers since Week 15. Diggs leans more toward “bust” this week.

Divisional Fantasy Prediction: Stefon Diggs Under 12 DFPs