Minnesota Vikings - Fantasy News

NFC Championship Game DFS Picks: Adam Thielen

by Derek Norton

1/18/18

NFL

Minnesota Vikings

Adam Thielen

History will forget (if it hasn’t already), but Adam Thielen was more than serviceable against the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional round.

Stefon Diggs enjoyed the highlights and the glory after his miracle game-winning touchdown reception, but it was Thielen who played the hero on Minnesota’s previous drive. Despite a couple of defensive penalties, his 24-yard catch put Kai Forbath in range for the go-ahead field goal.

But Thielen hasn’t had much Dober success lately, while the Philadelphia Eagles defense has not been kind to anyone.  

Why Should I Start Adam Thielen?

Case Keenum and Thielen both have a habit of scoring on the road. Three of Thielen’s four touchdowns came in away games while Keenum threw 14 of his 22 scores outside of Minnesota. They have just one season between them in which they scored more at home than on the road. We’re statistically more likely to see a touchdown connection between the two.

Another reason Thielen could score is his red zone usage. He leads the team in targets inside the 20 with 17. That ties him for 12^th among wide receivers. Considering his road success, this will be a good situation for Thielen to get looks at the goal line.

Thanks in part to drawing the second-most pass attempts of any defense in the league, the Eagles have the 17^th-ranked pass defense and give up 227 yards per game. Minnesota’s receivers get a bump in value should the Vikes become the next team to try airing it out against Philadelphia.

Why Should I Bench Adam Thielen?

Thielen didn’t do much for those who relied on him down the stretch. After the win over New Orleans, he has now failed to exceed his projection in four straight games and six of his last seven. A January matchup in Philadelphia may not be the best place to turn things around.

Though he gets targeted in the red zone, his efficiency is abysmal. Of his 17 targets, five were caught and two were scores. Julio Jones was the only receiver with as many red zone targets as Thielen to score fewer touchdowns.

Scoring on the Eagles has not been easy over the last month. In their previous three games, they’re allowing an average of 8.6 points. Thielen could also draw coverage from Patrick Robinson, who Pro Football Focus named second-team All-Pro.

Minnesota’s most recent trip to Philadelphia came last year, and it didn’t go well. Thielen caught two passes for 52 yards and the Vikings lost 21-10. A similar shutdown could happen this year. Philadelphia’s passing defense is third in the league in yards per attempt (6.5) and tied for fourth in interceptions.

Should I Make Adam Thielen an NFC Championship Fantasy Starter?

No. The Eagles have a very efficient defense that is playing very well right now. They also have the top-ranked scoring defense in the league at home, allowing just 13 points per game in Philadelphia. Thielen is a good player who will likely make an impact, but the impact isn’t enough to justify a projection he rarely met in the final quarter of the season.

NFC Championship Fantasy Prediction: Adam Thielen Under 12.5 DFPs