Kansas City Chiefs - Fantasy News

Should I Start Tyreek Hill in Week 4?

by Derek Norton

9/30/17

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

Tyreek Hill

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL thanks in large part to their newly explosive offense. “Explosive” is not usually a term reserved for passing attacks led by Alex Smith, but Kansas City’s 31 points per game average is third in the league behind the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots.

Tyreek Hill has been a major factor in Kansas City’s success, and he is in position to help the Chiefs continue to put points on the board throughout 2017.

Why Should I Start Tyreek Hill?

Hill’s athleticism really jumps out on tape. It’s like watching in-his-prime Percy Harvin, where it looks like everyone else on the field is carrying a bag of bricks. Hill’s speed and acceleration make him a threat to score in many ways from anywhere on the field. As such, it’s unlikely he’ll be a victim of game flow. He should be involved whether the Chiefs are leading or playing from behind.

His versatility also works in his favor. He runs both short and long routes, plus he gets carries as a running back and on jet sweeps. Because he could be anywhere at any time—according to Pro Football Focus, he has spent 30 percent of his snaps lined up on the left, 45 percent in the slot and 24 percent on the right—it will be difficult for the Redskins to focus on him.

The ‘Skins have not employed shadow coverage this season, either. That means Josh Norman won’t be following Hill around. More than likely, the Chiefs will try to line Hill up across from Bashaud Breeland, who is PFF’s 70^th ranked corner with a 51.4 rating.

Hill, on the other hand, is PFF’s 13^th ranked receiver with a rating of 82.1. He’s seventh in the NFL in receiving yards (253), and he was very, very close to being in the top three. In Week 2, he got behind the Eagles secondary and was wide open for what would have been a 41-yard touchdown. However, Smith barely overthrew him. That score would have removed the only blemish on his fantasy season (6.9 Dober Fantasy Points against the Eagles) and made him the second-highest scoring receiver in the league.

So far, Hill has been a truly elite option.

Why Should I Bench Tyreek Hill?

The last time we saw the Redskins secondary, it completely shut down a supposedly dangerous Oakland offense. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper combined for two receptions and 13 yards on eight targets. If that unit did it to the Raiders, it can do it to the Chiefs.

Though Crabtree and Cooper were the most recent casualties, they certainly weren’t the only ones. The best game the Redskins have allowed to a receiver was Nelson Agholor’s six-catch, 86-yard performance in Week 1. Agholor scored a 58-yard touchdown in the game, which was the only score the Redskins have surrendered to a wide receiver this season. It was a somewhat fluky one, too, due to Carson Wentz avoiding a sure sack and hitting Agholor when he was uncovered. After Agholor, these are the best games receivers have had against Washington: Alshon Jeffery (three receptions, 38 yards), Cooper Kupp (3-33), Sammy Watkins (2-30) and Torrey Smith (1-30).

It could just be a coincidence, but Hill doesn’t get the ball nearly as much at home. In 2016, he caught 18 passes at home compared to 43 on the road. And in an obviously small sample size, his worst fantasy performance of 2017 came in his lone home game against the Eagles.

Should I Make Tyreek Hill a Week 4 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Hill is averaging 16.23 Dober Fantasy Points per game, and it would be 19.76 if Smith had made an accurate throw on Hill’s potential long touchdown. The Redskins are shutting down wide receivers, but Hill is more than that. He can score in so many ways that he wouldn’t necessarily need traditional wide receiver usage to exceed his projection. Plus, he’s always just one play away from 13 Dober points.

Week 4 Fantasy Prediction: Tyreek Hill Over 12.5 DFPs