Kansas City Chiefs - Fantasy News

Should I Start Kareem Hunt in Week 15?

by Derek Norton

12/13/17

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

Kareem Hunt

It has been a long and painful fall for Kareem Hunt. Once mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley, Hunt is more of a mid-range fantasy option as the season draws to an end.

The good news is that the Kansas City Chief is coming off of a nice game against Oakland. He picked up 138 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown for the first time since Week 3.

Hunt and the Chiefs now have another AFC West showdown with playoff implications at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, this time against the streaky Los Angeles Chargers.

Why Should I Start Kareem Hunt?

The aforementioned Week 3 touchdown came against the Chargers in Los Angeles. It was Hunt’s last big game before his swan dive. Along with his score, he had a career-high 172 rushing yards on 17 carries. He had seven rushes that went for 10 yards or more, including his 69-yard score that put the game away with 1:49 remaining in the fourth quarter. He would only need one such play to eclipse his Week 15 projection (nine Dober points).

Off the heels of a good game against Oakland, Hunt has picked things up after an abysmal November. In two December games, he already has 29 more rushing yards than he did in three November contests. His December yards per carry mark (4.6) is also considerably higher than October (3.7) and November (3.3). He’s certainly nowhere near his insane September production, but he has at least been better recently.

The Chargers have one of the lowest-ranked run defenses in the league. They’re 29^th in yards allowed (124.8 per game) and 31^st in yards per carry (4.7). Overall, they have been a matchup to exploit this season, as Hunt showed in September.

Why Should I Bench Kareem Hunt?

Naturally, we need to mention just how unsuccessful Hunt was in the weeks following that Week 3 Chargers game. He went nine straight contests without covering his Dober spread and failed to eclipse his Week 15 projection in four of six games. One good effort against the Raiders doesn’t erase the sting of what Hunt did to his owners over the previous two months.

Though the Chargers rank near the bottom of run defense rankings, they have actually been solid recently. They were gashed early on by Hunt, Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount. But since Week 4, only one running back has exceeded 70 rushing yards against them (LeSean McCoy, 114). McCoy is the only starting back to surpass nine Dober points against Los Angeles since Week 10.

Despite low overall numbers, the Chargers are actually a top 10 defense against running backs according to 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed metric. That is partially because the metric only covers the last 10 games, so some of the team’s early struggles against the run are not factored in. At this point in the season, though, the Chargers are not the pushovers that the rankings suggest they are.

Should I Make Kareem Hunt a Week 15 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Hunt is averaging 5.1 yards per carry in AFC West games and his Oakland performance is encouraging. He’s probably not as good as the first three weeks of the season suggested, but he’s probably not as bad as the next nine contests, either. His projection is low considering he usually catches a few passes per game and shredded the Chargers in their first meeting. He’s a solid play this week.

Week 15 Fantasy Prediction: Kareem Hunt Over 9 DFPs