Kansas City Chiefs - Fantasy News

Should I Start Kareem Hunt in Week 1?

by Derek Norton

9/4/17

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

Kareem Hunt

Kansas City Chief Kareem Hunt is the first (but undoubtedly not the last) backup running back to be catapulted into a starting role after an injury to the feature back heading into the 2017 NFL season. The rookie third-round pick’s first pro action will come in the first game of the season against the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in Foxboro. We should learn plenty about Hunt’s ability to stack up as an NFL ball carrier in one of toughest matchups a team can have.

Why I Should Start Kareem Hunt

The Chiefs have pretty much no one else at running back. They had Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller before final cuts, but they decided to show Spiller the door. So yes, as of this writing, the Chiefs only have Hunt and West on the roster.

They’ll undoubtedly bring someone else in before Thursday, but it’s tough to envision this new player having much of an impact just a few days after signing. The backfield belongs to Hunt.

Kansas City averaged 25.75 rushing attempts per game last season. If that average holds, Hunt ought to get 15 to 20 of them, plus whatever receptions he manages to add. There aren’t too many running backs from whom you can expect more volume.

Hunt carried the ball 18 times for 79 yards in the preseason, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. In Kansas City’s Week 3 dress rehearsal in Seattle, he had nine carries for 39 yards against Seahawks starters. If he keeps this up in the regular season, he has a good shot at 90-100 yards from scrimmage in the opener.

For what it’s worth, Spencer Ware averaged 12.5 Dober Fantasy Points per game in 2016. With Ware’s opportunities, Hunt is in position to do the same.

Why I Should Bench Kareem Hunt

We really don’t know anything about him. We only have his 18 preseason carries and his game tape from Toledo. He looked good against MAC competition, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to automatically step into an NFL game and dominate. There’s a lot of dud potential here.

It’s fair to say the Chiefs don’t have the most dynamic offense. There isn’t much to fear, meaning Bill Belichick’s defense doesn’t have much to focus on. They’ll likely make Travis Kelce their first priority and Hunt or Tyreek Hill their second. That’s not great news considering what the Patriots usually do to running backs.

In 2016, New England gave up the third-fewest rushing yards in the league (1,417). They gave up the fewest rushing touchdowns (six) and allowed only 3.9 yards per carry. On top of that, they were tied for third in the league with 11 forced fumbles. If the Patriots want to, they’ll likely overwhelm Hunt.

The rookie also doesn’t have much history as a receiver. He averaged 3.1 receptions per game as a senior and caught 32 total passes in his first three seasons combined. It’s unlikely he’ll benefit from Dober’s 0.5 PPR scoring.

While Ware averaged 12.5 Dober Fantasy Points per game in 2016, he only eclipsed 11.5 points four times. He was a feast-or-famine running back, and this doesn’t look to be a feasting situation.

Should I Make Kareem Hunt a Week 1 Fantasy Starter?

No. There’s just way too much risk here. We don’t know if Hunt is better or worse than Ware and we don’t know if he’ll do more or less with Ware’s touches. He has a very tough matchup against a coaching staff that is very good at finding weaknesses.

There are also game flow issues. It looks more likely that Kansas City will be passing in the fourth quarter, not running. Unless the Chiefs plan on unveiling Hunt’s secret receiving skills, they may turn to West or the new running back if they’re playing from behind.

Hunt isn’t a horrible call considering the workload he’ll get, but the possibility of 15 carries for 50 yards and a fumble is a little too real.

Week 1 Fantasy Prediction: Kareem Hunt Under 11.5 DFPs