Jacksonville Jaguars - Fantasy News

AFC Championship Game DFS Picks: Dede Westbrook

by Derek Norton

1/20/18

NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars

Dede Westbrook

After winning two playoff games in which 13 and 87 combined points were scored, the Jaguars are in the AFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1999 season. So, things are a little weird right now and maybe trying to project any of this is an exercise in futility. But let’s give it a shot anyway.

Dede Westbrook had a huge preseason that included a 42-yard touchdown against the Patriots. The rookie didn’t make much of an impact due to missing the first 10 weeks of the regular season, but he has been heavily involved in Jacksonville’s offense since he debuted.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t done much in the postseason, and he’s playing perhaps the greatest playoff team of all time.

Why Should I Start Dede Westbrook?

Westbrook’s projection is fairly low. At 7.5 Dober points, it’s not far off from his season average (7.63). He certainly won’t need any kind of monster game; the play he made against New England in the preseason would be plenty.

Since Westbrook returned in Week 11, he’s been Jacksonville’s most-targeted receiver. Averaging 7.3 per game (51 total), he just edges Keelan Cole. At the end of the regular season, he was tied for the 15^th most targeted receiver in the league over that span.

Plenty of receivers go over 7.5 Dober points against the Patriots. Fifteen have done it since New England’s Week 9 bye, including both Corey Davis and Eric Decker last week. That happened despite Marcus Mariota playing injured and Davis/Decker not playing well all season. Davis hadn’t caught a touchdown pass all year before hauling in two against the Patriots.

Why Should I Bench Dede Westbrook?

Westbrook’s performances have been a little top-heavy. Despite averaging 7.63 Dober points per game, he has only exceeded that number in three of nine games. He has gone three straight weeks and four of the last five without covering his Dober spread. His boom-or-bust nature makes him difficult to trust.

Plus, he only has one touchdown this season. How many boom-bust players who don’t score are attractive options? The Jaguars are also ranked 26^th in passing yards per game on the road. Over their last three contests, they’re averaging 145 passing yards. Only two teams (Seattle, Houston) were worse in their final three contests.

Lest we forget, Blake Bortles isn’t very good. Of the 14 quarterbacks who have taken a snap in the playoffs, Bortles ranks 11^th in yards per game with 151. Only Tyrod Taylor, Nathan Peterman and Derek Anderson were worse.  It stands to reason the Jags will live and die with Leonard Fournette.

New England’s defense definitely improved as the season went along. After looking historically bad in the first quarter of the season, the Patriots only allowed two teams (Miami, Pittsburgh) to score more than 20 points the rest of the way. Four teams couldn’t even break double digits. Over that same span, the vaunted Jacksonville defense allowed five teams to score over 20 and held six teams under 10 points.

Should I Make Dede Westbrook an AFC Championship Fantasy Starter?

No. While this does have all of the “I shouldn’t have bet on the Patriots” storylines—they’re facing a Tom Coughlin-led team with shaky quarterback play, a strong running game and a top defense—it’s just too crazy to think Jacksonville’s passing game gets anything going unless the Jags are getting blown out and Bortles gets 400 yards in garbage time. That shouldn’t happen since Jacksonville ought to have the inclination and ability to control the clock with Fournette and the defense. As such, Westbrook mirrors his first two playoff games and falls short.

AFC Championship Fantasy Prediction: Dede Westbrook Under 7.5 DFPs