Indianapolis Colts - Fantasy News

T.Y. Hilton 2017 Fantasy Projections

by Derek Norton

8/13/17

NFL

Indianapolis Colts

T.Y. Hilton

Not many receivers can tantalize fantasy owners the way T.Y. Hilton can. Every year he’s on the verge of having an elite season as the top receiver in a nearly unstoppable offense, but one thing or another stands in his way.

Still, Hilton is one of the better receivers to own. He has a track record of season-to-season consistency that fantasy owners have come to rely on. But he’s not without his flaws.

Why T.Y. Hilton Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Stud

Hilton is one of the best deep-threat receivers in the NFL. He led the league with 28 receptions longer than 20 yards in 2016. That ability contributed to him also leading the league in receiving yards with 1,448. It was his fourth straight 1,000-yard season. That’s all the more impressive considering he played a large portion of 2015 without quarterback Andrew Luck.

Despite not meeting his lofty expectations yet, Luck is still one of the better signal callers in the league. He has been especially efficient in the red zone. The Stanford product had the 13^th-most red zone passing attempts, but he was tied with Tom Brady for the fifth-most red zone touchdowns (20). Luck was one of five quarterbacks with over 70 red zone pass attempts who didn’t throw an interception (Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston). Of that group, only Rodgers threw for more touchdowns than Luck. All of Indy’s receivers get a boost inside the 20.

Hilton saw a career-high 156 targets in 2016. It was the third straight year in which he saw an increase in that area. He had 90 targets his rookie season and at least 130 the following four.

He also had the second-highest yards per reception (15.9) among receivers with over 1,000 yards last year. Only Julio Jones (17) had more. Hilton gets plenty of targets and plenty of yards year after year, so he’s a safe bet to do it again in 2017.

Why T.Y. Hilton Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Dud

What’s absent from Hilton’s game is touchdowns. He has never scored more than seven in a season and averages six. Despite all of his production, he has never finished in the top 20 in receiving scores in a single season.

Part of that is because Luck tends to spread the ball around in the red zone. Hilton led the Colts with 13 red zone targets last year, but Jack Doyle had 12, Donte Moncrief received 10 and Dwayne Allen had nine. Hilton converted only two of his 13 red zone targets into touchdowns. Both of them came inside the 10. More often than not, he has to rely on a big play to score.

There are legitimate worries about Luck’s health. He’s been a frequent visitor to the injury report over the last two seasons and had shoulder surgery in January. The procedure, which repaired a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, was supposed to keep him out for six to nine months. He has not participated in any team activities and there’s no guarantee he’ll be ready for Week 1. Hilton’s value takes a huge hit if Scott Tolzien is under center for any length of time.