Detroit Lions - Fantasy News

Vikings at Lions Start 'Em / Sit 'Em

by Aaron Bowers

11/22/17

NFL

Detroit Lions

Golden Tate

In a tradition going back decades, the Detroit Lions will host a home game on Thanksgiving. This year, the Minnesota Vikings come to town for a contest that features a battle between the first and second place teams in the NFC North.

Despite the loss of their starting running back and quarterback, the Vikings have found their way to an 8-2 record, tied for second-best in the league. The Minnesota defense has been stout this season, holding eight of 10 opponents to fewer than 20 points. Meanwhile, Case Keenum has shed years of mediocrity to play like an above-average quarterback.

Though they sit at 6-4, it’s tough to point to things the Lions do well. Their offense has been solid, but has disappeared in big moments. The Detroit defense plays a bend-but-don’t-break style that has given up more than 20 points seven times in 10 games.

The Lions won their first matchup with Minnesota in Week 4, 14-7. They’ll need to win this game at home to avoid falling three games back of the Vikings with five to play. We’ve identified players to target and fade in this Thursday morning matchup.

Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Projected Fantasy Points
Case Keenum: 14.0 PFP
Adam Thielen: 13.0 PFP
Stefon Diggs: 12.0 PFP
Jerick McKinnon: 10.0 PFP
Kai Forbath: 9.0 PFP
Latavius Murray: 8.0 PFP
Kyle Rudolph: 7.5 PFP

Detroit Lions Week 12 Projected Fantasy Points
Matthew Stafford: 17.0 PFP
Golden Tate: 12.0 PFP
Marvin Jones: 10.5 PFP
Matt Prater: 9.5 PFP
Ameer Abdullah: 9.0 PFP
Kenny Golladay: 7.5 PFP
Theo Riddick: 7.0 PFP
Eric Ebron: 5.0 PFP
T.J. Jones: 5.0 PFP

Start 'Em: Latavius Murray (8.0 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 7.36

A fantasy afterthought two months into the season, Latavius Murray has made a big impact on the Minnesota offense over the last four games.

The 6-3 running back took over early-down duties after the loss of Dalvin Cook, though he didn’t do much except stumble into his lineman as he recovered from an ankle injury. However, in his last four games, Murray has averaged 13.45 DFP with touch totals of 18, 20, 17 and 16.

The Lions were absolutely gashed by the Chicago running backs in Week 11, with the similarly-powerful Jordan Howard running for 125 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries. Murray also operates as the goal line back in this offense, giving him a great chance to get over his relatively low PFP in a favorable matchup.

Sit 'Em: Stefon Diggs (12.0 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 12.68

A fantasy darling to start the season, Stefon Diggs has been in a rough patch since going down with a groin injury in Week 5. In the three games he’s played since returning from the injury, he has yardage totals of 27, 78 and 32 against the Browns, Redskins and Rams. Meanwhile, teammate Adam Thielen has been on a tear, averaging 25.2 DFP per game over that same stretch.

While it is unlikely that such a wide split in productivity will persist the rest of the season, it is a concerning trend for Diggs. Whether the lack of production is due to lingering effects from his groin injury, gameplanning or just bad luck, we recommend fading Diggs until he shows he can produce like he did to start the year.

Start 'Em: Golden Tate (12.0 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.75

In the four-game stretch from Week 6 to Week 10, Golden Tate had more than six receptions and 86 yards in every game. That streak came screeching to a halt on Sunday when he caught just three passes for 32 yards against the Bears.

It is no secret that Minnesota has one of the best defenses in the league, and their strength is in their secondary. Fortunately for Tate, he’ll avoid one of the Vikings’ best, Xavier Rhodes, who plays outside cornerback and doesn’t normally travel to the slot.

Against a fearsome Vikings’ front, Matt Stafford will be looking to get the ball out of his hands quickly, benefitting Tate, who runs most of his routes short and near the line of scrimmage. He should pile up catches and yards to get over his PFP in this game.

Sit 'Em: Marvin Jones (8.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.92

It’s not often we recommend fading a player on a hot streak like Marvin Jones, but that’s exactly what we’re doing. In his last five games, Jones has averaged 15.96 DFP per game, despite a game where he had one catch for 22 yards.

However, this matchup just doesn’t set up well for Jones. He’ll likely draw the coverage of Rhodes, who has shut down some of the best receivers in football, and Jones is a far cry from that company.

Given a choice, Stafford has shown he would rather throw short passes than take shots down the field against one of the better secondaries in the league. With Jones relying so much on broken plays and deep passes for his fantasy production, we recommend players fade him on Dober Play Cards in a bad matchup.