Denver Broncos - Fantasy News

Should I Start Trevor Siemian in Week 15?

by Derek Norton

12/13/17

NFL

Denver Broncos

Trevor Siemian

Denver’s quarterback situation has not exactly been the envy of the NFL this year.

Trevor Siemian finds himself at the “top” of the heap (for now) and is coming off a rare win. The Northwestern product put up his fifth-highest total of the season (13.3 Dober Fantasy Points) in a 23-0 win over the New York Jets this past week.

Next up is a trip to Indianapolis for a Thursday Night Football game with little more than draft order on the line.

Why Should I Start Trevor Siemian?

The Colts are one of the best matchups to date for Siemian. The 258 yards they allow through the air per game is third-most in the league and the 8.2 yards per attempt are the most. They’re also coming off an extremely difficult loss to Buffalo in a blizzard. With only four days to recover, they could be even worse than usual.

Indy’s injuries in the secondary could benefit Siemian as well. Starters Rashaan Melvin and Pierre Desir are out, meaning rookies Quincy Wilson (second round), Nate Hairston (fifth round) and Kenny Moore II (undrafted) will be lining up at corner. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should have plenty of chances to get open.

Almost every quarterback who has faced the Colts this season has gone over Siemian’s Week 15 projection (12 Dober points). The exceptions were Tom Savage, Marcus Mariota and the Nathan Peterman/Joe Webb combo. But the Colts had Melvin and Desir in the matchups against Savage and Mariota, and no one would have had success throwing the ball in the Buffalo weather last week. The Bills passed just 16 times compared to 51 runs, so stopping them wasn’t much of an accomplishment. Siemian has a low bar to clear.

Why Should I Bench Trevor Siemian?

The former NU Wildcat is on thin ice. The Broncos are rotating quarterbacks constantly and a bad half could put him on the bench. He’ll likely hold off Paxton Lynch for at least another week, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to say Brock Osweiler has a good chance of showing up at some point.

Siemian hasn’t gone over 12 Dober points in back-to-back games since Weeks 1 and 2. From that point forward, he has just one multi-touchdown game and five multi-turnover efforts. In the three games after he scored 12 or more Dober points, he’s averaging just 5.61 Dober points. Just a reminder: he scored 13.3 on Sunday.

The Colts may give up a ton of yards through the air, but they don’t give up many touchdowns. The 19 they’ve allowed is tied for 13^th-fewest in the league. Not an imposing number by any stretch, but it could matter for Siemian. He has six scores in his last seven games.

Siemian has one career start against the Colts, and that took place in Week 2 of the 2016 campaign. He recorded 9.34 Dober Fantasy Points and did not throw a scoring pass. This will be his first trip to Indianapolis. He has three touchdowns and nine interceptions in road games this season.

Should I Make Trevor Siemian a Week 15 Fantasy Starter?

In the unenviable position of choosing between the stoppable force and the movable object, let’s go with yes. The injuries to the Colts’ secondary make them especially vulnerable and they weren’t doing too well when healthy. Thomas and Sanders give Siemian a slight edge.

Week 15 Fantasy Prediction: Trevor Siemian Over 12 DFPs