Dallas Cowboys - Fantasy News

Should I Start Alfred Morris in Week 11?

by Derek Norton

11/16/17

NFL

Dallas Cowboys

Alfred Morris

At long last, it seems the Ezekiel Elliott saga is finally and mercifully over. Our first glimpse of life without Zeke was, if nothing else, educational.

The Cowboys suffered a 27-7 loss to a Falcons team that had lost four of its last five games. That doesn’t bode well for Week 11, when Dallas will host the 8-1 Eagles, who are in midst of a seven-game winning streak.

Alfred Morris will have his work cut out for him, but not all is lost for the Cowboys running back.

Why Should I Start Alfred Morris?

One of the things we learned against Atlanta is Morris looks like he’s going to get the majority of Zeke’s touches. Darren McFadden got one snap and one touch. Keith Smith got six snaps and one touch. Morris led Dallas’ backs in touches (11) even though Rod Smith out-snapped him 38 to 22. Morris should start again and get the first crack at getting the running game going.

His projection (5.5) is low enough that even Philadelphia’s excellent defense routinely allows running backs to surpass it. A rusher has gone over 5.5 Dober points in seven of Philadelphia’s nine games. The exceptions came in Week 3 against the Giants and Week 10 against the Broncos. Neither team boasts a particularly strong rushing attack, so there’s hope for Morris.

As a member of two different NFC East teams in his six-year career, Morris has plenty of experience going against the Eagles. He hasn’t been particularly successful, but he does tend to clear the low bar that has been set for him this week. In 10 career games against Philadelphia, Morris surpassed 5.5 Dober points seven times. That’s an impressive percentage even before removing the two games in which he was Elliott’s backup.

Why Should I Bench Alfred Morris?

The Eagles are about the toughest matchup a running back could draw. They’re first in rushing yards allowed (598), fifth in yards per carry (3.6) and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (four). Only three of those scores came from running backs. Of those three, two belong to Kareem Hunt, who is 40 yards away from being the NFL’s leading rusher. Almost no running backs have had legitimate success on the ground against Philadelphia.

Morris was a victim of game flow in Week 10, and he could be again in Week 11. Dallas’ offense was terrible without Elliott and Tyron Smith. Elliott is obviously out, and Smith’s status is up in the air. If the Cowboys struggle and fall behind again, Morris will likely find himself watching most of the game from the sidelines.

The area in which most running backs have had success against the Eagles is the passing game. They allow the second-most receptions (6.6) and second-most receiving touchdowns per game (0.4) to running backs. Chris Thompson, Andre Ellington and Christian McCaffrey all had solid receiving games against them. That hurts Morris since he isn’t much of a pass-catching threat. He has eight targets and four receptions in his 22 games as a Cowboy. He was not targeted in Week 10, while Rod Smith saw six targets. The Cowboys could make Smith a bigger part of the game plan, limiting Morris’ upside even more.

Should I Make Alfred Morris a Week 11 Fantasy Starter?

Yes, since the projection is so low. Morris nearly made it last week (5.3) even though he had a horrible game script. In a divisional matchup that has seen three of the last four contests decided by 10 points or fewer, Morris shouldn’t be taken out of the game as early as he was against the Falcons. And if Tyron Smith is active, Morris will be an even more attractive option.

Week 11 Fantasy Prediction: Alfred Morris Over 5.5 DFPs