Dallas Cowboys - Fantasy News

Jason Witten 2017 Fantasy Projections

by Derek Norton

8/13/17

NFL

Dallas Cowboys

Jason Witten

Jason Witten is something of a national treasure in fantasy circles.

He’s been around the NFL since the 2003 season and has only missed one game, which came in his rookie year when he broke his jaw.

But the end is rapidly approaching for Witten, who just turned 35 years old and is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career.

Despite playing the shallowest position in fantasy, Witten is likely only going to be employed in worst-case scenarios during the 2017 season.

Why Jason Witten Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Stud

Witten is essentially always on the field. It’s not that he doesn’t get hurt—he’s suffered the aforementioned broken jaw, a lacerated spleen and concussions throughout his career. But he never actually misses any games, which is something that not many tight ends in the league can say over the last decade-plus.

He also has one of the best supporting casts around. The Cowboys are loaded at just about every offensive position, so no one is going to be able to focus on the former Tennessee Volunteer. He could make some noise if he’s able to slip unnoticed through cracks in opposing defenses.

Despite his age, Witten doesn’t appear to be on his way to being replaced. The Cowboys haven’t signed or drafted any big-name tight ends, and he signed a contract extension through 2021 back in March. He played 96 percent of Dallas’ offensive snaps in 2016, and there’s no reason to think he’ll be on the field less often in 2017.

Witten should also get the ball a fair amount of time on passing plays. He received 95 targets in 2016, which was tied for seventh among all NFL tight ends.

Why Jason Witten Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Dud

Witten is entering his 15^th season in the league. He has never suffered an injury serious enough to cause him to miss significant time, but Father Time is undefeated. His streak is on notice from here on out.

His numbers have also steadily declined since 2012, which was his last 1,000-yard season. His 673 receiving yards in 2016 were his lowest total since his rookie year, and his 69 receptions were his second-lowest total since 2007. He’s only scored three touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.

Perhaps the biggest problem with Witten is he has a low floor and a low ceiling. He had three receptions or less in eight games in 2016 and only went over 100 yards once—and that was against the 1-15 Cleveland Browns. In other words, 20 percent of his yardage last year came against the worst team in the league.

If you remove Witten’s Cleveland performance from his game log, he averaged just 36 yards per game. His next-best performance came in Week 1 against the New York Giants when he had 66 yards.

Another reason you’re probably not going to get any huge games out of Witten is quarterback Dak Prescott barely ever looked his way when the Cowboys were close to scoring last year. Witten had only three targets inside the 10-yard line, which ranked him 23^rd among tight ends.

Fantasy players would be much better off targeting a boom-or-bust guy who has a decent chance of scoring a couple of touchdowns.