Carolina Panthers - Fantasy News

NFL Wild Card DFS Picks: Christian McCaffrey

by Derek Norton

1/5/18

NFL

Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey

The Carolina Panthers looked lost last year after falling to the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl. But with another offseason to recover, the Panthers are back in the playoffs despite playing in arguably the toughest division in the league.

Credit part of the turnaround to Christian McCaffrey, the franchise’s first-round pick who finished third in receptions among running backs. He should be a worthwhile Dober asset in his first career playoff game.

Why Should I Start Christian McCaffrey?

This will be McCaffrey’s third Saints game of the season and the first two went well. He averaged 15.3 Dober points per game and exceeded his Wild Card projection (12) both times. The Panthers may have lost both games, but McCaffrey got his before it was over.

Only one team (Denver) has allowed more receiving touchdowns to running backs than the Saints. They’ve given up five, including four since Week 11. McCaffrey himself secured one of those in Week 13. Todd Gurley is the only rusher with more receiving scores than McCaffrey, so any increased chance of getting in the end zone helps.

The Saints have given up more than receiving touchdowns since Week 11. A running back has scored more than 12 Dober points on them in every game since then. That’s thanks in large part to nine total touchdowns over that stretch. But the Saints’ opponents aren’t touchdown dependent. The 4.4 yards per carry they allow are the fourth-most in the league.

Why Should I Bench Christian McCaffrey?

McCaffrey has had some trouble on the ground in away games. He’s averaging 3.4 yards per carry as a visitor compared to four yards at home. That doesn’t seem too bad, but his season-long rush (40 yards) came on the road. Remove that and he’s averaging 2.65 yards per carry. He had fewer than 20 rushing yards in six of eight road games.

The Stanford product also wasn’t great in his final four games of the season. He failed to exceed eight Dober points three times, only managing to produce in a home game with the Packers. He could be hitting the rookie wall. He’s also just 21 and is entering his first career playoff game. He could be fatigued or overwhelmed by the pressure.

The Panthers have struggled to score against the Saints in their last three meetings. They’re averaging 19 points per game, which would put them on par with Buffalo’s 22^nd-ranked scoring offense. If the whole offense struggles again (as the unit did in Week 17 against Atlanta), it’s bad news for McCaffrey.

Should I Make Christian McCaffrey a Wild Card Fantasy Starter?

Yes. At 7.1 targets per game, McCaffrey should be involved in Carolina’s offense even if it struggles. The Saints haven’t managed to solve him yet and they’ve been getting wrecked by running backs in the latter part of the season. He obviously has no history in the playoffs, so it’s difficult to say how he’ll perform in this scenario. But as Carolina’s leader in combined rushing and receiving yards, he should be fine.

Wild Card Fantasy Prediction: Christian McCaffrey Over 12 DFPs